Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 0.033896 0.038595 0.043734 0.049776 0.056691 0.064363 0.073531
2025-02-02 0.027168 0.033705 0.041509 0.051534 0.064099 0.079367 0.099387
2025-02-09 0.023580 0.030992 0.040382 0.053191 0.070275 0.092370 0.123265
2025-02-16 0.020352 0.028027 0.038229 0.052844 0.073353 0.101269 0.142426
2025-02-23 0.018110 0.025965 0.036849 0.053119 0.076982 0.110950 0.163416
2025-03-02 0.016036 0.023826 0.035021 0.052399 0.078913 0.118192 0.181442
2025-03-09 0.014800 0.022722 0.034500 0.053433 0.083394 0.129460 0.206583
2025-03-16 0.013378 0.021159 0.033089 0.052886 0.085278 0.136805 0.226211
2025-03-23 0.012654 0.020590 0.033122 0.054563 0.090787 0.150331 0.257278
2025-03-30 0.011328 0.018909 0.031202 0.052820 0.090417 0.154080 0.272069
2025-04-06 0.010365 0.017730 0.029975 0.052085 0.091623 0.160509 0.292097
2025-04-13 0.009302 0.016274 0.028143 0.050103 0.090405 0.162514 0.304212
2025-04-20 0.008961 0.016062 0.028459 0.052008 0.096451 0.178293 0.344124
2025-04-27 0.008626 0.015831 0.028721 0.053845 0.102571 0.194868 0.387598
2025-05-04 0.008304 0.015587 0.028927 0.055579 0.108645 0.211928 0.433964
2025-05-11 0.007735 0.014824 0.028093 0.055216 0.110553 0.221009 0.464983
2025-05-18 0.007300 0.014277 0.027618 0.055503 0.113770 0.232995 0.503454
2025-05-25 0.006785 0.013527 0.026676 0.054750 0.114752 0.240444 0.532887
2025-06-01 0.006515 0.013242 0.026630 0.055832 0.119694 0.256705 0.583814
2025-06-08 0.006096 0.012616 0.025838 0.055260 0.120992 0.265200 0.617919
2025-06-15 0.005936 0.012514 0.026116 0.057015 0.127597 0.286076 0.683568
2025-06-22 0.005460 0.011701 0.024826 0.055190 0.125921 0.288018 0.703735
2025-06-29 0.005117 0.011144 0.024040 0.054421 0.126593 0.295428 0.738224